(SOUTHERN COLORADO) — We’ve had quite a few thunderstorms recently that have had gusty winds, but also hail in the mix. That sparked a great question from one of our viewers:
“I have a question for the new young weatherman. I saw him answer a weather question on television the other day. I was just wondering, how do you or the weather team know if a thunderstorm is going to bring hail? Or do you just assume every storm might have it? I live in Falcon, where we get storms a lot, and I’d really like to understand how you can tell what kind of severe weather a storm might bring.” -Anna D of Falcon
It’s a solid question, and there are a few key things we look for when forecasting hail.
1. Storm Energy (CAPE)
One of the first ingredients we analyze is CAPE, which stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. In simple terms, it’s storm fuel or energy. The more energy in the atmosphere, the stronger the updrafts inside thunderstorms. And the stronger the updraft, the more likely it is to see hailstones.
2. Steep Lapse Rates
We also look at the lapse rates, which measure how quickly air cools with height. When air cools rapidly with height, what we call a steep lapse rate, it helps storms grow stronger by providing the environment with rapid rising motion. That stronger vertical motion helps hail form more efficiently and survive longer before melting.
3. Low Freezing Level
Lastly, something we consider is the freezing level, which is the height in the atmosphere where temperatures drop below freezing. The lower the freezing level, the more likely hail is to survive the trip to the ground without melting. This is especially relevant here in Colorado, where higher elevations naturally bring the freezing level closer to the surface.
In fact, Falcon is sitting at around 8,600 feet, hail has a much better chance of reaching the ground intact and causing damage.
Got a weather question of your own? We’ve got you covered!
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